Forecasting the End: Brandon Carter’s Doomsday Argument and Its Econometric Implications
17 june 2025
In the world of econometrics, we're accustomed to predicting recessions, estimating causal impacts, and modeling long-term growth. But what if the tools of probabilistic reasoning could also offer insight into humanity's own lifespan? This is the bold proposal behind physicist Brandon Carter’s Doomsday Argument, a theory that, while grounded in philosophical probability, has clear implications for statistical reasoning and long-term forecasting.
Joep Nieuwenburg
